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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

De-acceleration continues in 2018, and China-Panamá relations are under scrutiny
PANAMA · Report · 28 Sep 2018

Real GDP grew 3.1% y/y in Q2 2018, continuing its downward trend. Accumulated growth during the first half of the year was 3.7%. During the second quarter, the month-long labor strike in the construction sector (around 15 percent of GDP) brought activity to a halt; therefore, the positive surpris...

Deleveraging amid trade war
CHINA · Report · 27 Sep 2018

Growth is weak, but can still be viewed as stable. Industrial output was up 6.1% y/y, up 0.1 pps from July and down 0.5 pps from Q2. Fixed asset investment was up 4.1%, and negative in real terms; it could decline further in the future. CPI was up 2.3% y/y in August, and up 0.5 pps from May. ...

Lukewarm debate on SBT favors Bolsonaro and Haddad
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Sep 2018

The presidential debate on SBT/Folha/UOL was a “lukewarm” affair. Despite being targeted by attacks at several points in the debate, neither Jair Bolsonaro of the PSL (who was not present as he is still recovering in the hospital) nor Fernando Haddad (PT) suffered any big losses.

New IMF agreement and Monetary Policy
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 27 Sep 2018

Yesterday, after local market closed, Treasury Minister Nicolás Dujovne announced, together with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde, the new outline of the recently renegotiated Stand-by agreement. The agreement starts to have effect once the board of directors of the IMF approves it, which ...

​Another “strong” 50bp rate hike
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 27 Sep 2018 · 1 response

In the wake of the higher than expected August inflation and continuing monetary tightening in the U.S., the Monetary Board today raised its policy rates by another 50bp, bringing the overnight reverse repurchase (RRP) rate to 4.5%. This is the Monetary Board’s fourth successive rate hike, with i...

The polarization between Bolsonaro and Haddad remains unaltered
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Sep 2018

The Ibope poll hired by CNI and published today, September 26, shows that the polarization between Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) and Fernando Haddad (PT) remains the same as recent polls have indicated. It is important to note that since the beginning of September, Bolsonaro and Haddad are the only candid...

EL SALVADOR: Growth and inflation at status quo
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Sep 2018

El Salvador’s revised short-term economic outlook for 2018-2019 was unsurprising, with only minor changes in key or sensitive macroeconomic indicators. We reaffirm our prediction for real GDP growth of 2.2% y/y in 2018, and 2.4% in 2019. We are also maintaining our inflation forecast, meaning tha...

A further bit of a problem with EU transfers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Sep 2018

We have written a lot about the prospective problems with Hungary's access to EU transfers in the next medium-term budget period, i.e. between 2021-2027. However, it seems now that access to part of the country's EUR25bn EU development transfer quota, set for the current seven-year budget period ...

A great leap…in the wrong direction
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Sep 2018

The Maduro regime is trying to find a way to provide minimal standards of living without giving up power or rents. In recent statements and actions, including a grand stabilization plan announced on August 17, Maduro comes off as someone open to pragmatism and responsible public administration to...

Central Bank in coordination with the Treasury
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 25 Sep 2018

While local economic activity is practically on hold today as the government suffers its fourth general strike lead by the labor unions (GCT), and the economic team lead by Dujovne re-negotiates with the IMF the Stand-by agreement, the market received the news that Central Bank President Luis Cap...

Economics: A Look Back at Peña Nieto’s Mexico
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2018

As one presidential administration draws to a close and another prepares to take the reins of power, President Enrique Peña Nieto’s sixth and final State of the Nation Report to Congress provides a good starting point from which to assess the main achievements and failures of his six-year term an...

The second round will tend to be close and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2018

The electoral campaign enters its final phase: only two weeks are left before the first round (October 7). Two presidential debates are scheduled, on September 26 and 30. President Michel Temer takes part in the opening ceremony of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday. On Friday, September 28, the ...

Politics: Public bullish yet skeptical on AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 24 Sep 2018

The results of the most recent quarterly survey on governance in Mexico by GEA-ISA reaffirm the extent to which President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador continues to enjoy considerable social support, and just how optimistic many voters are about how his administration will perform in general....

The CA surplus continues to decline, but FDI remains strong
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Sep 2018

The current account surplus continues to decline while net FDI remains robust. Housing completions increased sharply in Q218, supportive of subdued rental prices. Non-housing credit growth is slowing and is likely to restrain household spending. With the shekel strong and the inflationary environ...

The last COPOM meeting before the elections
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Sep 2018

At the last meeting before the elections, the COPOM kept the SELIC rate at 6.5% a year. Although the slow pace of economic recovery is working in favor of price stability, if progress is not made on the agenda for reforms, leading to fiscal consolidation, the risks will grow, weakening the real a...

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