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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Mar 28
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Brazil Economics databank Mar 18
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Central America databank Feb 28
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Chile databank Jan 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Mar 1
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Dominican Republic databank Feb 23
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Ecuador databank Mar 26
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Gulf Countries databank Mar 28
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Hungary databank Mar 20
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India databank Mar 28
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Mexico databank Mar 28
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Panama databank Feb 2
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Peru databank Mar 27
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Philippines databank Mar 11
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South Africa databank Mar 6
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Turkey databank Mar 6
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Ukraine databank Feb 12
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Uruguay databank Mar 27
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Venezuela databank Mar 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CENTRAL AMERICA OUTLOOK: COSTA RICA, EL SALVADOR, GU...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
MPC Does the Expected, More to Come
TURKEY · Report · 20 Apr 2016
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held its first meeting today under the chairmanship of the new Governor, Mr. Murat Cetinkaya, opting for a 50 bps cut of the O/N lending rate to 10% (simple), in line with expectations of the majority of analysts, including us. The other two rates – O/N borrow...
Economics: Sentiment and investment dichotomy
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2016
Indexes of business confidence for March and of gross fixed investment for January showed negative results last week. But readings of sentiment and actual fixed investment significantly parted ways as far back as 2013 and as recently as 2015, a period in which business owners grew increasingly pe...
Politics: UNGASS and Foreign Policy Disarray
MEXICO · Report · 19 Apr 2016
President Enrique Peña Nieto’s approach to foreign relations has been a point of considerable controversy lately, with the most recent point of contention his initial decision early this month not to attend the upcoming U.N. General Assembly Special Session on Drugs, an event that had been moved ...
A Rather Weak Start for 2016
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Apr 2016
Growth prospects for 2016 still look quite bleak, given the combination of sluggish external demand with the currently unfolding impact of this year’s EU transfer shock. In fact, the economy started 2016 in a rather weak mode. We expect GDP growth to strengthen from 2% in 2016 towards 3% in the f...
Brazil and the World According to the IMF
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Apr 2016
Last week the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published its semiannual update of the World Economic Outlook (WEO). The report contains negative information about the Brazilian economy, and paints a global economic picture that will be unlikely to stimulate Brazilian growth.
Week of April 18
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Apr 2016
The impeachment arrives at the Senate. Senate President Renan Calheiros promises to set a work schedule with the Federal Supreme Court. A week of intense negotiations, by both the Planalto and the opposition. President Dilma Rousseff will intensify the government’s reaction, expanding the legal, ...
How will a Chinese adjustment affect the world?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Apr 2016
Special points to highlight in this issue: • Recent debt and economy-related data released by the PBoC and the National Bureau of Statistics suggest that economic activity is stabilizing, but for the wrong reasons. Debt continues to rise faster than ever. • I continue to expect that China is mo...
Weekly Tracker: April 17-23
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2016
Turkey’s smaller opposition parties, HDP and MHP, are in disarray. The pro-Kurdish rights HDP is facing the threat of several of its members being excommunicated from the Grand Assembly, if a controversial amendment to the Constitution restricting parliamentary immunities passes. The leader of th...
Government should be defeated on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2016
Unless an extraordinary event happens, the floor of the House of Representatives will approve the admissibility of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff on Sunday. The chances are of 90%. Sources heard by Arko Advice, both from government and opposition, indicate that the pro-impeachment v...
Impeachment chances increase with defeat in the Supreme Court
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Apr 2016
As expected, late on Thursday, April 14, the government suffered two major defeats in the Supreme Court (STF). Government allies had filed an injunction challenging the voting order of impeachment by the House.
New Cabinet appointed. We are skeptical about reforms.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Apr 2016
Today Parliament approved Volodymyr Groysman for the Prime-minister post. The new Cabinet will have six (!) vice-prime ministers. The economic block of the Cabinet was totally refreshed. Former Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko was replaced with Oleksandr Danylyuk, who was Deputy Head of the Presi...
The parliament is getting ready to lift its own immunities
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Apr 2016
It fills my heart with joy to receive questions from you, because it means Turkey is still being covered. Here is the latest query: “Hello, I have a question on the talks about removing the HDP immunity. We read that now CHP would not be against it. What exactly does it mean in terms of repercuss...
Economics: Lower Outlook, Deeper Cuts
MEXICO · Report · 14 Apr 2016
The Ministry of Finance sent the Chamber of Deputies its “Preliminary Economic Policy Criteria for 2017” on April 1. The preliminary criteria text depicts a relatively conservative macroeconomic scenario for 2017: GDP growth between 2.6% and 3.6% (as opposed to GEA’s 2.1% estimate); 3% inflation...
Politics: Panama, Bloomberg and Anti-Corruption
MEXICO · Report · 13 Apr 2016
No Mexican government officials have been mentioned so far in the Panama Papers, although the names of a number of prominent businessmen have turned up. But one whose financial activities may prove to be especially politically significant is Juan Armando Hinojosa, who has emerged as a major gover...
Court of appeal gave green light for debt placement and holdouts payment
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2016
Today the United Stated Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit confirmed Griesa´s ruling, by which it allows again Argentina to honor its debt commitments in the US market, and effectively worldwide. For a starters, Argentina will be able to pay its 2005/2010 restructured debt (Discounts and Par...