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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Feb 8
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Brazil Economics databank Mar 18
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Central America databank Feb 28
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Chile databank Jan 25
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Mar 1
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Dominican Republic databank Feb 23
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Ecuador databank Feb 16
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Gulf Countries databank Mar 15
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Hungary databank Feb 21
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India databank Feb 16
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Mexico databank Feb 7
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Panama databank Feb 2
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Peru databank Feb 26
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Philippines databank Mar 11
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South Africa databank Mar 6
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Turkey databank Mar 6
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Ukraine databank Feb 12
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Uruguay databank Feb 5
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Venezuela databank Mar 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR: VENEZUELA - ASSESSING RISKS AND OPPORTUNITIES...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Weekly Tracker: March 13-19
TURKEY · Report · 13 Mar 2016
Davutoglu’s provocative refugee proposal to EU is not acceptable in its initial form, meaning that some kind of bargaining will have to take place. Given that there is no Plan B for EU, and no other direction to turn for Ankara, we bet on some type of a compromise. Russia might propose a federa...
GDP Results in 4Q
COLOMBIA · Report · 11 Mar 2016
Colombian GDP expanded by 3.3% in 4Q 2015; this allowed economic activity to expand by 3.1% for the year as a whole, pretty much in line with the market’s expectations (3%). While this result is still below potential GDP growth, it was among the best in the region, above Mexico, Brazil and Chile....
The Grand Chess Game
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 11 Mar 2016
The Russian leadership continues to use Syria as a bargaining chip in the country’s relations with the West. Although raising the stakes could be dangerous for Russia, so far the country has been largely successful in leveraging its military presence in the country and close relations with Syria ...
Bear Story
CHILE · Report · 09 Mar 2016
On February 29, the Minister of Finance announced a fiscal adjustment package of 0.3% of GDP. When Rodrigo Valdés was appointed Minister of Finance, he promised to gradually reduce the structural deficit. The 2016 budget was designed under the requirement that the structural balance be reduced fr...
Economics: Pass-through Effect Looms
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2016
Peso depreciation has been a source of considerable concern in virtually all spheres of Mexican society. One of the main reasons for that sense of unease is the extent to which we are seeing a resurgence of inflation pressures. Just two weeks after Banco de México and the Ministry of Finance ann...
Politics: New Challenges to Anti-graft Reform
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2016
Fighting corruption is an issue that is at the center of public debate these days in Mexico, thanks in large part to the call for a citizens’ initiative in support of their proposal for a General Law of Administrative Responsibilities, which has been promoted under the hash tag “#Ley3de3”. Follow...
The Current Account Deficit Expands In the Fourth Quarter of 2015, but Contracts Annually
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Mar 2016
The balance of payments figures released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) show that South Africa’s current account balance shrunk further during the last quarter of 2015 to record a deficit of R208 billion on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, which translates into minus 5.1% of GDP...
Grace Poe allowed to run
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 08 Mar 2016
In a 9-6 decision, the Supreme Court today ruled that Senator Grace Poe can run for the Presidency, reversing the Commission on Elections' earlier decision to disqualify her. The bets are that this decision, which lifts the cloud of uncertainty surrounding her eligibility, will boost her ranking ...
New data reflects a weakening economy, sharply tighter fiscal policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2016
There is rarely a clearer case for further monetary loosening than the current one. CPI-inflation was -0.1% mom, 0.3% yoy in February, the yoy rate dropping from 0.9% in the previous month. Much of this drop was due to another -3.7% mom in fuel prices, but ex-fuel inflation also fell to 1.2% yoy ...
EU-Turkey summit: A hard offer to swallow for EU
TURKEY · In Brief · 08 Mar 2016
The historic EU-Turkey summit ended with a decision to hold another one on 17-18 March, as Turkish Premier Davutoglu arrived at Brussels with a ground-breaking proposal that can largely mitigate EU’s refugee crisis. The problem is EU needs to pay the piper and the price might be too high. On the ...
Week of March 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2016
Repercussions from the 24th phase of the Lava-Jato Operation, conducted last week, continue to be felt in Brasília. With the publication of the STF decision on the procedure for the impeachment proceedings, the Court could rule on the questions presented by the House. There is considerable expect...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Mar 2016
The recession worsened in 2015 and still has a long way to go. It is the result of ill-conceived decisions by the Rousseff administration, made worse by the government’s failure to react, because of the main objective of staying in power in the short run. The country’s political cauldron has been...
The Indications from the Latest GDP Data
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Mar 2016
To understand what lies ahead, we need reliable information about what has happened. The announcement that GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 fell by 1.4% in relation to the third (an annualized rate of 5.7%) reveals that the economy contracted by 3.8% last year. This also means seven consecutive ...
Unsustainable political and economic crises
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Mar 2016
Discontent among the population is converging against the president, and pressure for a change of government is increasing. Shortages of staple foods and medicines are now being compounded by water and power outages. Protests, organized criminal violence, and spontaneous citizen violence are on t...
Weekly Tracker: March 6-12
TURKEY · Report · 06 Mar 2016
We think both the investment community and the press devote far less attention to Monday’s EU-Turkey summit than it deserves. Its results could be historic turning points for both sides. The press is cautiously optimistic that EU and Turkey will reach a deal to keep refugees in Turkey, but we hav...