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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

No change is likely at tomorrow's Monetary Council meeting
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Mar 2018

The market expects absolutely no policy change at tomorrow's rate-setting meeting, either through interest rates or in the area of non-conventional policies. This corresponds to our view, which is based on two circumstances. First, the MNB may not want to take any significant action immediately b...

The presidential election: Temer’s candidacy
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Little doubt remains regarding the pre-candidacy of Michel Temer (MDB). In an interview with IstoÉ magazine this week, he said it would be “cowardice” not to run. He also stated that the main reason for his candidacy is so he can defend his legacy. It is still somewhat surprising that he would ru...

Lula’s legal battle and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Expectations are building regarding the appeals of former President Lula in the TRF-4; given the result of the first trial (3-0), the probability is that these appeals will be unanimously rejected. Due to the October elections, the ministerial reshuffle will begin. Two ministers (Healthcare and T...

Global trade and its discontents
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 Mar 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The Trump administration seems serious about implementing trade intervention policies aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, and especially the deficit with China. While part of the bluster may be for negotiation purposes, whatever happens in the nex...

The monetary easing cycle has not yet ended
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Mar 2018

The Central Bank decided to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points at the last COPOM meeting, to 6.5%, and made it clear that if the conjuncture continues to evolve as it has recently – low inflation and weak economic recovery – another reduction can be expected at the next meeting. Although th...

Pandora's box opens for markets
TURKEY · Report · 25 Mar 2018 · 1 response

The victory in Afrin has granted Turkey a permanent say in the future of Syria, but it has also confirmed our view of a long-term military and economic investment in the war. Furthermore, additional military campaigns heralded by President Erdogan are likely to raise the wrath of the US and/or As...

Moody's priceless gift to President Ramaphosa
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 24 Mar 2018

As I speculated in my last Note a week ago, yesterday Moody's kept South Africa's global credit rating at investment grade, and importantly changed its outlook from "negative" to "stable". I beleive , all considered, this is a jusified assessment. More imprtantly, however, this is a priceless gif...

China’s tariff plan: Xi Jinping plays smart domestic politics
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 23 Mar 2018

Beijing’s response to Trump’s tariffs was an astute brand of politics. Both sides are playing as much to internal politics as to their opposing countries. Trump is shoring up his political base by supporting the steel industry. Xi Jinping is wisely attacking states harboring Trump’s supporters, b...

After sticks, stones
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Mar 2018

Ecuadorians have been shocked by shameful political scandals around abuses of political power and corruption that have so far put a Vice President in jail, have demoted the president of the National Assembly and have the Attorney General waiting for an impeachment. In addition, for the first...

​President Kukzynski has resigned
PERU · In Brief · 21 Mar 2018

A few minutes ago, through a television address, the president announced his resignation thus avoiding the impeachment procedure that was scheduled for tomorrow.During a seven-minute speech, Kuczynski blamed the opposition majority in Congress pointing to their frivolous and arbitrary behavior, w...

Kuczynski likely to be ousted
PERU · In Brief · 21 Mar 2018

Yesterday's revelations of attempts to change votes to avoid the president's impeachment on the part of dissident members of the Fuerza Popular party has all but decided that he will be ousted tomorrow. During a press conference, the spokesman for Fuerza Popular Daniel Salaverry accompanied by ot...

Presidential succession: Context and perspectives
MEXICO · Presentation · 21 Mar 2018

The presidential election will take place in the context of a political crisis, with government approval at historic lows. The results of the election remain uncertain, and risks remain high.

More positive economic metrics out of South Africa as the deficit on the current account narrows to 2.5% of GDP in 2017
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Mar 2018

Following the notable widening in the seasonally adjusted and annualized trade surplus to R92 billion during the third quarter of 2017, the trade balance narrowed to (a still substantial) R74 billion in the last quarter of 2017 as reported by the SA Reserve Bank. This was a result of a more prono...

Economics: No clear consensus on inflation
MEXICO · Report · 20 Mar 2018

Inflation in Mexico has proven to be more stubborn this year than monetary authorities had earlier projected, and additional pressures are looming. Higher prices for LP gas, some produce, and certain goods have been especially apparent in recent inflation reports and prompted both Banco de México...

Politics: Security system struggles
MEXICO · Report · 19 Mar 2018

The decision by Jalisco state and federal authorities to sequester all members of the Tlaquepaque police force and directly assume control over public security in the municipality was immediately viewed through a partisan lens in a state where the PRI governor has long been warring with the oppos...

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