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PM Orbán has just passed an important hurdle in EU politics
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2018

Somewhat counter-intuitively, the catastrophic vote against Hungary in the European Parliament on September 13, which we wrote about in our September report, has also brought about something positive for PM Orbán's government, implying relief in an important question. One scenario after the vote ...

ILFS default and what comes next
INDIA · Report · 23 Sep 2018

Non Bank Finance Companies (NBFCs) have succeeded in India given the difficulties of banks. They have somewhat bank-like assets with bond market financing. Fixed income mutual funds have become an important method for channeling household and corporate treasury money into the bond market. But the...

Start spreading the news, off to NYC
TURKEY · Report · 23 Sep 2018

The next milestone in Turkey’s journey between salvation and damnation arrives this week, as President Erdogan travels to NYC to meet with investors and most likely to hear from the American administration about the cost of not complying with its requests. Emboldened with a diplomatic victory in ...

Essential CIS Politics: Russia emerges from the difficulties of the past month
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2018

Russia has emerged from the difficulties of the past month. Regional conflicts bubble on, but no major escalation is expected. CIS republics continue to hedge with new patrons – notably China.

President Ramaphosa unveils South Africa’s economic stimulus package
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Sep 2018

With SA’s economy in the doldrums, declining for a while, President Cyril Ramaphosa promised the country a stimulus package that would help revive the ailing economy – South Africa is currently in a technical recession as a result of two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth during H1 2018.

South African Reserve Bank keeps rates unchanged despite mounting pressures
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Sep 2018

​The SA Reserve Bank has announced that it is keeping the benchmark interest rate, the repo, unchanged at 6.5% - so the prime interest rate stays put at 10%. The Bank has changed the repo rate only once so far in the current year, when it cut the rate by 25 basis points amid the then markedly dec...

MTEP/NEP: First impressions...
TURKEY · Report · 20 Sep 2018

The much-anticipated Medium-Term Economic Program (MTEP) – or the New Economic Program (NEP) by its new name -- was announced this morning by the Treasury and Finance Minister Mr. Berat Albayrak in a short presentation. (The document is available only in Turkish for the moment; English version of...

The IMF requests budget 2019 approval, media report
UKRAINE · In Brief · 20 Sep 2018

Local news agency reported that the IMF requested to approve budget 2019 to complete the fourth review under the EFF program ($1.9 billion wire expected). The IMF mission left Kyiv yesterday, on September 19. Neither the IMF, nor the Cabinet commented on results of the mission work so far. Local ...

The hawks are out
CHILE · Report · 19 Sep 2018

The Central Bank’s September Monetary Policy Report (IPOM) was surprisingly hawkish. It stated that the upward cycle would begin “in coming months,” implying in either mid-October or early December. The Bank’s base scenario is that the monetary policy interest rate will be between 4% and 4.5% dur...

Yes, but what the hell did the MNB do yesterday?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Sep 2018

Analyst views on what exactly the MNB did yesterday seem to differ significantly, depending on who one is talking to. This is not necessarily the fault of respondents, but much more the problem of the significantly overburdened and not entirely coherent system of policy tools maintained by the MN...

Ibope reinforces trend of a Bolsonaro vs. Haddad runoff
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Sep 2018

The Ibope poll released yesterday, September 18, shows that Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is firmly in the lead in the presidential race and that Fernando Haddad has taken second place. As expected, the PT candidate has attracted support by exploiting his ties to former President Lula.

GDP sped up to 3.8% y/y in 2Q 2018, updated statistics
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Sep 2018

State statistics office reported a 3.8% y/y GDP increase in 2Q 2018. Provisional estimate was +3.6% y/y. Thus in 1H 2018 GDP sped up to 3.5% y/y vs. 2.7% y/y in 1H 2017. In 2Q 2018 private consumption and investments in fixed assets slowed but remained strong. In particular, private consumption i...

Draft budget 2019: No gas prices increase included
UKRAINE · In Brief · 18 Sep 2018

Yesterday, on September 17 details of draft budget 2019 have been released. Spending plan was suggested unusually modest as for the election year: spending increased only 10.4% y/y. However, for some reason housing subsidies have been cut down to UAH 55.1 billion vs. UAH 77.1 billion envisaged fo...

Following the right path, albeit too slowly
ECUADOR · Report · 18 Sep 2018

Ecuador is one of the countries facing a humanitarian crisis of large proportions brought on by the massive exodus of millions of Venezuelans escaping from heart-breaking living conditions. Last week, President Moreno, represented by Minister of Foreign Affairs Jose Valencia, led an international...

China’s highly distorted private equity funding
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Sep 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Economists usually try to evaluate a country’s debt position according to various debt ratios, but what often matters even more is how institutional distortions affect debt dynamics. China’s financial system is locked into a process in which excessiv...

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