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Alliances at home, conflicts abroad
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2018

At home, the electoral alliance between AKP and MHP begot another one at the center right, as other groupings are beginning to coalesce. Elections contested by alliances rather than individual parties could result in drastically different outcomes that we, or the current poll averages indicate. ...

Mr. Trump's trade war would have little direct impact on Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2018

The total (direct and indirect) potential impact of the recently announced extra import duties on steel and aluminum products on Hungary cannot be known for the time being, of course, as it will depend on how far trade policy conflicts between the US and the rest of the world (and primarily the E...

Gazprom strikes back: the monopoly cuts gas supplies to Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Mar 2018

The decision of Stockholm arbitration in favor of Ukraine (Naftogaz), no doubt, is unacceptable for Kremlin on the eve of presidential elections in Russia. It ruins the legend about omnipotence of Gazprom and undermines the myth about inferiority of Ukrainian state, that Russian media actively pr...

The Central bank increases prime rate by 1.0 ppt up to 17.0%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2018

The Board of the Central bank decided to increase prime rate by 1.0 ppt up to 17.0% from March 2. Strong inflation of January (+1.5% m/m or +14.1% y/y) and provisional data on February inflation (information is not available to public) pushed the Central bank to make one more tightening step. Mon...

Too much whining is not enough
ECUADOR · Report · 01 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Nine months have elapsed from the day Lenin Moreno took office and told Ecuadorians that “the table has not been served” as former President Correa boastfully declared. Moreno´s change of ways raised expectations for a change in the economic model as well, but on that side, to date there is nothi...

Vigencias futuras: How big?
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Mar 2018

Though fiscal policy will surely be discussed during this presidential campaign, a rather under-the-radar topic attracting criticism is the size of spending commitments President Juan Manuel Santos is leaving for future administrations to pay. These future budget commitments, known as vigencias f...

Law on anti-corruption court approved in first reading
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Mar 2018

Parliament approved draft law on anti-corruption court in first reading. It’s positive news; however it tells nothing about chances to resume funding from the IMF. The Fund criticized current version of the draft law. In particular, the IMF in its letter on January 11 emphasized that the submitte...

​Xi Jinping’s constitutional change….power grab or sign of weakness?
CHINA ADVISORY · In Brief · 28 Feb 2018

The announcement that Xi Jinping will seek an unlimited term as President of China has been widely misinterpreted as the act of a strongman that could lead to a return to the days of Maoism. Instead, we should view the announcement as a sign of weakness – Xi is tightening his political control as...

Stockholm arbitration rules Gazprom to compensate $2.56 billion to Naftogaz
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Feb 2018

The Stockholm arbitration court ruled $4.63 billion compensation to Naftogaz for under-payment on natural gas transit, according to Naftogaz statement in social nets. Previously, in December 2017 the Arbitration Institute of the Stockholm Chamber of Commerce obliged Naftogaz to pay Gazprom near $...

December EMAE confirms 2017 GDP growth below 3.0% - No GDP Warrant payment in 2018
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 28 Feb 2018

The INDEC published today the monthly GDP proxy (EMAE) for the month of December 2017, with an annual growth rate of 2.0%y/y. With this result the 12-month-moving growth projection climbed from 2.7% in November to 2.8% for 2017 as a whole. Therefore the preliminary GDP result falls short of the 3...

Fiscal results follow the growth composition: Dynamic exports and investment, and stagnant private consumption
PANAMA · Report · 28 Feb 2018 · 3 responses

The Monthly Index of Economic Activity grew 4.1% during Q4 2017 and 5.2% from January to December compared to the same period in 2016. The main drivers were transportation and communications including canal, ports and air transportation; construction; mining; and water and electricity supply—most...

Chaos and control
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2018

The opposition decided to boycott the April 22 presidential election and push for a credible process later in the year. International pressure on the regime is ratcheting up: Venezuela’s neighbors are militarizing their borders—ostensibly to deal with the growing influx of Venezuelan refugees—and...

Banks' Profitability Improved
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Feb 2018

The Indonesian banking industry has shown an interesting development in recent days. In the past few years the banking industry was busy consolidating after a hike in its non-performing loans, but the consolidation has been more than halfway completed. The rise in non-performing loans was due to ...

The recovering economy helps the government candidate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Feb 2018 · 1 response

The headline printed by one of the main newspapers in the country, Estado de São Paulo, is worrisome for the left and for the PSDB: “Economic recovery reaches 62% of industry”. The improved economic environment is one of the critical vectors of the presidential race. Although it may not be suffic...

The presidential race and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Feb 2018

The federal intervention in Rio de Janeiro is still a focal point; this week, General Walter Souza Braga Netto will release a plan of action for the state. President Temer may announce the new Minister of Public Security, a cabinet ministry to be created via provisional measure. In the Lower Hous...

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