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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The Year of the Dog begins
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 Feb 2018 · 1 response

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Wang Qishan was recently appointed to the National People’s Congress. It is very rare for a nominally retired CCP high official to gain a seat in the NPC, so his appointment may be significant. There are rumors that he will soon be appointed the count...

Economics: Not a very bright outlook
MEXICO · Report · 26 Feb 2018

In recent weeks officials have been trying to offer an optimistic take on the economic outlook even while admitting to significant risks (Nafta, US fiscal reform and monetary policy, Mexico elections and related market volatility), but the evidence that has emerged during this period shows a weak...

Politics: Data set from the presidential race
MEXICO · Report · 26 Feb 2018

Now that the presidential nomination phase of this year's electoral contest has concluded, a look back at the sort of campaigning that took place between December 1 and February 11 tells a lot about how each nominee used that period to try to overcome their biggest challenges. José Antonio Mea...

Inflation Trend and Risks Ahead
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Feb 2018

At this point in time, the Central Bank is probably looking not only at 2018, but also 2019, when it will have to strive for convergence of the interest rate to the “neutral” level. The ideal situation would be for the government to make progress in the reforms – not only in the fiscal field, but...

Oops - a surprising result at an interim local election today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2018

It was only a few days ago that we published our latest report, saying repeatedly that Fidesz was heading safely towards a big victory at the parliamentary election on April 8. Opinion polls still strongly suggest that outlook, but as it happened, an interim local election held today and followed...

What’s in Our Minds?
TURKEY · Report · 25 Feb 2018

This month’s report arrives in your inboxes in a Q&A format, thanks to several meetings with groups of investors and experts that allowed us to focus on the FAQ, and areas we consider important yet have been missing from the radar. In politics, Turkish Forces and allies are rapidly moving towa...

High expectations, but beware of the hurricane
CHILE · Report · 23 Feb 2018

According to the Monthly Index of Economic Activity (IMACEC), the Chilean economy expanded by a meager 1.6% in 2017. Nevertheless, the fourth quarter of last year marked a turning point. According to the Central Bank, the leading sectors were once again commerce and services, coherent with the st...

COSTA RICA: Uncertainty Is the flavor of the day
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Feb 2018 · 1 response

Costa Rica’s political environment looks unsatisfactory, a situation that affects our short-term economic outlook. Right now, uncertainty is the flavor of the day. The results of the February 4th presidential and congressional elections didn’t curb either uncertainty or negative expectations. In ...

External accounts are balancing
CHINA · Report · 23 Feb 2018

The ex-factory price index of industrial products was up 4.3% y/y in January, down 1.6 pps from Q4 2017. PPI was up 5.2% y/y, down 1.9 pps. Given tightening monetary policy, we expect producer prices will continue their downward trend in 2018. Due to the Spring Festival – the Chinese New Year -- ...

Is Xi Jinping in control of the Chinese economy?
CHINA ADVISORY · Presentation · 20 Feb 2018

Xi Jinping is both Chairman and CEO of China, which has led to ineffective policy making: no one is “driving” supply side reform. But while reform has been limited, there are signs of risk reduction in the financial sector, and local governments are providing some solutions.

China buys the world: The domestic politics of China’s foreign direct investment
CHINA ADVISORY · Presentation · 20 Feb 2018

There is a suspicion that there is a collective brain that directs Chinese companies’ actions, and that recent outbound acquisitions have been directed by pervasive government planning. However, China’s ambitions are complex, and there is no invisible hand. State and market capital will continue ...

Politics: Mobs targeting local politicians
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2018

With roughly four and a half months to go before Election Day 2018, violence against politicians is reaching unprecedented levels; just since September 19 local politicians including current and former municipal presidents, and those looking to run for such offices, have been murdered. The fact t...

Economics: Unpopular reform a major success
MEXICO · Report · 20 Feb 2018

Round 2, Phase 4 of tenders provided the most eloquent example to date of just how successful Mexico's 2014 energy reform is proving to be. The largest single group of exploration and production blocks that Mexican regulators have auctioned to date drew an unprecedented level of participation fro...

President Ramaphosa’s fiscal headache or a chance to start proving himself...?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Feb 2018 · 1 response

New South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has inherited a fiscus that is in a dire state. For instance, National Treasury announced a projected tax revenue to fall short of the 2017 Budget estimate by R50.8 billion (during MTBPS 2017), the largest downward revision since the 2009 recession. Eve...

​Rumors of Kurds ceding Afrin to Assad creates new scenarios for Turkey
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Feb 2018

Turkey’s Syria adventure is one of the most complicated stories ever to be told by Yours Truly, wherein the subtext changes daily. I write this note in the hourly hours of Tuesday, 20th of February, when several reports suggest Syrian Kurds (PYD-YPG, allied with PKK) and President Assad had reach...

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