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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Racing against time
TURKEY · Report · 02 Sep 2018

As autumn sets in, Turkey is under unprecedented pressure from markets and erstwhile ally US. Later in September, Assad’s attack on Syrian border province Idlib could create a new set of headaches for the country. President Erdogan and his administration are reacting to the pressure by announcing...

DataPoder360 Poll: The presidential race is still unpredictable
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Aug 2018

The telephone poll released today, August 30, by DataPoder360 confirms the strength of Lulismo and Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) as the leaders of the presidential race at this time, just before the beginning of the airing of electoral ads on radio and TV. Their strength can be explained by their narrativ...

The race towards 2020 elections already started; Fernández pulled ahead
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 30 Aug 2018

Although others had formally launched their pre-campaign activities aimed at getting the PLD nomination for the presidency, the rally staged by former President Leonel Fernández to inaugurate his pre-campaign was the one that marked the beginning of the race to the 2020 presidential election. He ...

Positive comment from Moody's on the MNB's new prudential rules for mortgage lending
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Aug 2018

In a recent report on the vulnerability of emerging economies in the light of financial market corrections, Moody's made some praising comments regarding the MNB new prudential rules for banks' mortgage lending, which were out a few days ago and will take effect in October 2018. According to thes...

GUATEMALA: In a poverty trap
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Aug 2018

Our revised 2018-2019 outlook for Guatemala has the same characteristics as our outlook of last March: Slow growth, relatively low inflation and depreciation, a moderate fiscal deficit, government debt below 25% of nominal GDP and monetary control. The outlook calls for GDP growth of 2.8% to 3....

Economics: More studies needed for the Maya Train
MEXICO · Report · 28 Aug 2018

The Maya Train project that Andrés Manuel López Obrador promised during the campaign and has since greatly expanded would pass through five states in Mexico’s southeast: Yucatán, Quintana Roo, Chiapas, Tabasco and Campeche. It is being projected primarily as a way to encourage more tourists to ve...

Mexico and US finally reach a bilateral trade agreement
MEXICO · In Brief · 28 Aug 2018

After more than one year of hard discussions and uncertainty about trade relations, Mexico and the US announced yesterday a preliminary trade agreement that modernizes NAFTA. The main issues that stalled negotiations in the past few weeks were resolved. Even though details have not yet been revea...

Politics: Wither the Education Reform?
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2018

The sweeping changes to education laws that constituted the first in a series of structural reforms passed during the first half of President Enrique Peña’s administration introduced major changes into the entire system, beginning with a constitutional guarantee that all Mexicans have a right to ...

The campaign will enter a new phase and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Aug 2018 · 1 response

The electoral campaign enters a new phase, with the airing of electoral ads on radio and TV this Friday, August 31. Candidates whose nominations have been contested have until Friday to present their defense to Electoral Courts. Jornal Nacional (Globo TV) begins a series of interviews with the pr...

Piñera’s tax ‟reintegration”
CHILE · Report · 27 Aug 2018

One would have thought that Sebastián Piñera would have been much more eager to fix those aspects of Bachelet's reforms that were thought to be so negative for the Chilean economy. Indeed, it is striking that the economy has grown as it has given that all those damaging policies, which some feare...

Exchange rate volatility and fiscal fragility
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Aug 2018

Last week Brazil was once again included in the group of countries facing the largest currency depreciations. Unlike Turkey and Argentina, which are highly dependent on capital inflows to finance their current account deficits, Brazil has no balance of payment problems. In the past 12 months, its...

Following a weak Q218, a modest improvement expected in Q3
ISRAEL · Report · 27 Aug 2018

Most economic indicators underline soft growth in Q218, but some modest acceleration is expected in Q3. Despite the BoI criticism, fiscal credibility is expected to be maintained and fiscal adjustments likely following the 2019 elections. Most factors are pointing to modest inflation: shekel appr...

Despite financial turbulence, fundamentals are sound
CHINA · Report · 27 Aug 2018

Growth is still stable amid the uncertainty of trade war. Industrial output was up 6% y/y in July, the same rate as in June, and down 0.6 pps from Q2, still in a stable zone. Investment increased 3% y/y in July, down 2.2 pps from Q2, and down 3.8 pps from July 2017, showing a stark decline. But p...

Risk-off
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 27 Aug 2018

The past few months have proved challenging for the Philippines amidst risk-off global market conditions and a string of surprises that have led to the current mood of heightened caution. Despite robust domestic demand, economic growth slowed sharply, dragged down by net exports. Capacity const...

​Post-vacation agenda:Pastor Brunson is joined by Idlib Crisis
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2018

It was anything but a tranquil Eid al-Fitr in Ankara. Despite public denials, backdoor negotiations to end the stalemateabout Pastor Brunson and other American detainees in Turkey moved ahead without a break-through. Theseefforts were joined by shuttle diplomacy between Ankara and Moscow, as Assa...

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