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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The gubernatorial races and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Mar 2018

On the economic agenda, we highlight the release of the GDP preview for January and the Central Bank’s decision on the benchmark interest rate. Former President Lula begins another caravan throughout the South region on March 19, closing in Curitiba (PR) on March 28. A new Ipsos poll on the presi...

Can the expansion of consumption guarantee 3% GDP growth?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Mar 2018

The growth of household consumption, spurred by monetary policy, has been the driving force behind the recovery. However, the previous quarter witnessed a substantial deceleration, and if one takes real retail sales as a bellwether of consumption (which, as reiterated in recent reports, is an exc...

Rapid growth and moderate inflation
HUNGARY · Report · 19 Mar 2018

The odds for the April parliamentary election have become slightly more even since a candidate supported by all opposition parties won against Fidesz in an interim local election held in late February. This event has increased the willingness of opposition parties to cooperate in the national vot...

What are the signs regarding “true” growth in 2018?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 19 Mar 2018

Our projection for economic growth of 3% in 2018 implicitly rests on a significant acceleration of the quarterly GDP growth rates – from 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 1.1% per quarter this year. The latest data indicate that GDP only expanded by 0.5% in the first three months of 2018, pos...

Ant Financial’s aggressive strategy
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 19 Mar 2018

Ant Financial operates through two businesses, Ant Credit Pay, which is a “virtual” credit card customers use to buy goods through Alibaba’s online platforms, and Ant Cash Now, which provides loans in cash issued directly to users who pay in installments with interest. The capital is supplied pri...

Early elections?
TURKEY · Report · 18 Mar 2018

Early Sunday morning Turkish commandos entered the center of Afrin to join what we think will be a bloody urban warfare. Since we are not war correspondents, there is not much to write about Afrin, except expressing a hope for minimal casualties. Instead, we turn our attention to the question ...

2018–2019 forecast: Hyperinflation, recession, and default
VENEZUELA · Forecast · 14 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Our outlook for 2018–2019 has the economy crumbling and hyperinflation worsening under Maduro’s policies. GDP shrinks by a quarter over two years, and inflation easily reaches six digits by 2019. Real wages and interest rates plunge to unprecedented depths. Oil prices rise to $54 a barrel, but ex...

Mexico’s economy in 2018: Moderate deceleration alongside financial volatility
MEXICO · Presentation · 14 Mar 2018 · 3 responses

The year 2018 includes a growth slowdown, financial volatility and growing uncertainty into the election. Mexico faces three main economic risks, two of them since 2017...

South Africa's credit rating on the mend
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 14 Mar 2018 · 1 response

Quarter One of 2018 has been a turning point for South Africa's political economy outlook. Despite all predictions to the contrary, Jacob Zuma is no longer the president, and the shift to President Ramaphosa has been relatively smooth. The cloud of desperation has been replaced by newly found opt...

The banking crisis is changing shape
INDIA · Report · 13 Mar 2018

The banking crisis is mutating (going beyond excessive leverage to new concerns about operational risk) and deepening (the problems of many banks are getting worse). The banking system is increasingly pulling back from its role in the economy. In a remarkable decision a few hours ago, the RBI ban...

Eleven weeks is an eternity
COLOMBIA · Report · 13 Mar 2018 · 1 response

A one-liner summarizing the results of last Sunday’s congressional elections would be that political extremes were strengthened, and congressional power has been fragmented. Indeed, the two party primaries gave momentum to the more radicalized views of the political right and left. Nearly six mil...

Poroshenko criticizes IMF as Stockholm rules in favor of Naftogaz
UKRAINE · Report · 13 Mar 2018

Recent weeks brought both good and bad news for Ukraine. First, the litigation between Gazprom and Naftogaz finally ended, with a ruling in favor of Naftogaz, obliging Gazprom to compensate the Ukrainian energy corporation to the tune of $2.56 billion. Gazprom responded by launching an appeal, an...

Campaign with no struggle
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2018

President Putin has put Russia’s relations with the West at the center of his unofficial campaign. He did not participate in any of the debates, and overall, the pre-election landscape looks as if all other participants have been competing against one other, with none of them anywhere near compet...

Election on the agenda and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Mar 2018

Politicians continue to take advantage of the window to change parties ahead of the October elections; this window closes on April 7. The Lower House will try to vote on the bill that deals with payroll tax exemptions. Federal judges will go on strike on Thursday, March 15, in defense of their ho...

Confirmed: NFPS deficit reached 3.2% of GDP, 0.9% off-target
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 Mar 2018

The Central Bank and the budget office have finally published, and almost simultaneously, the figures of the budget result for 2017. The Central Bank published figures for the Central Government, for the decentralized and autonomous institutions, for the Non-Financial Public Sector (NFPS) and for...

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